Posts

šŸŒ *Does every El NiƱo mean drought in Tigray? My analysis suggests the answer is: not necessarily.*

Image
Many of us have recently heard that the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute (EMI) has selected *1997 and 2023* as the closest *analogue years* for the current *2026 Kiremt (June–September) rainy season (based on the Meteorological seasons type)*. Naturally, this raises an important question: *Does the presence of El NiƱo always mean that Tigray will experience drought?* To explore this question, I analyzed *44 years (1982–2025)* of historical monthly rainfall data from the *CHIRPS* satellite rainfall dataset, one of the world's most widely used high-resolution rainfall products. I specifically examined the Kiremt rainfall patterns during all *eight historical El NiƱo years (1987, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023)* and compared each of them with the internationally recognized *1991–2020 climatological average*. The results were both fascinating and surprising. šŸŒŠ *First, what exactly is El NiƱo?* The Pacific Ocean, although thousands of kilometers away from Ethiopia, plays a...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Horses Speak Again: A Response to Getachew Reda and Redwan Hussein

Image
Let me begin with a confession. I read your Al Jazeera opinion piece — the one where you wrap yourselves in the language of peace while sitting in the camp of a genocidaire. And then I read this rebuttal, this "Misreading of Pretoria," which is not a misreading at all. It is an anatomy. A dissection. A mirror held up to your faces. And what it shows is ugly. You, Getachew Reda and Redwan Hussein, are not peacemakers. You are mouthpieces. You are the horses that Abiy Ahmed rides into the battlefield of public opinion, and you have been ridden so long you have forgotten you were ever men. Let me walk through your own words — not the ones you wrote for Al Jazeera, but the ones written about you in this document. And let me show you why the people of Tigray are no longer buying what you are selling. "Cloaked in the language of peace preservation..." You love this cloak, don't you, Getachew? You wear it like a second skin. You write about "stability," ab...
Post a Comment
Read more