🌍 *Does every El Niño mean drought in Tigray? My analysis suggests the answer is: not necessarily.*

Many of us have recently heard that the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute (EMI) has selected *1997 and 2023* as the closest *analogue years* for the current *2026 Kiremt (June–September) rainy season (based on the Meteorological seasons type)*. Naturally, this raises an important question: *Does the presence of El Niño always mean that Tigray will experience drought?*

To explore this question, I analyzed *44 years (1982–2025)* of historical monthly rainfall data from the *CHIRPS* satellite rainfall dataset, one of the world's most widely used high-resolution rainfall products. I specifically examined the Kiremt rainfall patterns during all *eight historical El Niño years (1987, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023)* and compared each of them with the internationally recognized *1991–2020 climatological average*.

The results were both fascinating and surprising.

🌊 *First, what exactly is El Niño?*

The Pacific Ocean, although thousands of kilometers away from Ethiopia, plays a major role in regulating the Earth's climate. Under normal conditions, strong trade winds push warm surface water toward Indonesia and Australia, while colder water rises near the west coast of South America.

Every few years, however, these trade winds weaken. Warm water spreads eastward across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, changing ocean temperatures and altering atmospheric circulation across much of the globe. This warming phase is known as *El Niño*.

Although the warming begins far away in the Pacific Ocean, it can influence rainfall in Africa, Asia, Australia, and the Americas by modifying global atmospheric circulation.

🌍 *What is a teleconnection?*

One of the most fascinating ideas in climate science is the concept of teleconnection.

Imagine throwing a stone into a calm lake. The stone lands in one place, but the ripples spread across the entire surface.

The atmosphere behaves in a similar way. A change in one part of the world can trigger atmospheric responses thousands of kilometers away. This long-distance connection between climate systems is called a *teleconnection*.

In other words, warming in the Pacific Ocean can eventually influence wind patterns, cloud formation, moisture transport, and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia—even though the two regions are separated by vast oceans and continents.

📊 *What did 44 years of rainfall data reveal?*

Perhaps the most important finding is that *there is no single El Niño rainfall pattern for Tigray.*

Each El Niño event behaved differently.

- *1987* produced widespread below-normal Kiremt rainfall.

- *1991* brought drier conditions in western Tigray but wetter-than-normal rainfall across many central and eastern areas.

- *1997*, despite being one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded globally, produced rainfall that was generally close to normal across much of Tigray.

- *2002* showed a mixed response, with some districts wetter and others drier than average.

- *2006* was particularly remarkable because most of Tigray experienced above-normal rainfall, demonstrating that El Niño does not always lead to drought.

- *2009* again showed considerable spatial differences across the region.

- *2015* produced one of the strongest drought signals observed during the study period, with widespread rainfall deficits across most woredas.

- *2023*, one of the analogue years for the upcoming season, was characterized largely by near-normal rainfall with localized wet and dry anomalies rather than a region-wide drought.

These historical patterns clearly show that *El Niño influences rainfall in Tigray, but its impact is neither uniform nor consistent from one event to another.*

🌦️ *Why does every El Niño behave differently?*

This is because El Niño is only one piece of a much larger climate system.

The final rainfall outcome over Ethiopia depends on how El Niño interacts with many other atmospheric and oceanic processes, including the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Tropical Easterly Jet, the African Easterly Jet, the Somali Low-Level Jet, moisture transport from the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and even the mountainous landscape of northern Ethiopia.

In simple terms, El Niño creates the background climate conditions, but many other climate "players" determine how much rain actually falls over Tigray.

🔍 *What does this mean for the 2026 Kiremt season?*

Since *EMI identified 1997 and 2023 as the closest analogue years*, some may assume that 2026 will unfold exactly like those seasons. However, analogue years are *not exact forecasts*. They indicate that the current large-scale climate conditions resemble those years more closely than others, but they do not guarantee the same rainfall distribution.

The historical evidence suggests that if the analogue relationship holds, *2026 may be characterized by considerable spatial variability*, with some parts of Tigray receiving above-average rainfall while others experience below-average rainfall. This highlights the importance of continuous in-season monitoring alongside preseason outlooks.

🚀 *Where should research go from here?*

One of the strongest messages from this analysis is that *we still do not fully understand why different El Niño events produce different rainfall patterns over Tigray.*

This calls for urgent research that goes beyond simply asking whether an El Niño exists. Instead, we need to understand *how different El Niño intensities, types, timing, and evolution interact with global and regional climate systems* to shape seasonal rainfall over northern Ethiopia.

Future studies should trace these climate pathways by examining the combined roles of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, atmospheric circulation patterns, moisture transport mechanisms, and local topographic influences. Integrating satellite observations, atmospheric reanalysis, climate model outputs, and modern artificial intelligence techniques could enable the development of *tailored and robust regional seasonal rainfall prediction systems.*

Such prediction systems would not only advance climate science but also provide practical benefits by supporting woreda-level early warning systems, improving agricultural planning, strengthening water-resource management, enhancing drought and flood preparedness, and informing locally tailored integrated anticipatory action plans before climate shocks occur.

🌱 *Final Reflection*

After examining four decades of rainfall history, one conclusion stands out:

*Nature is far more complex than we often assume.*

El Niño is undoubtedly one of the world's most influential climate phenomena, but it does not operate in isolation. The rainfall we receive in Tigray is the product of many interconnected atmospheric and oceanic systems acting together.

Understanding those interactions is one of the most important scientific challenges facing climate research today. Every step we take toward improving seasonal rainfall prediction is also a step toward strengthening food security, protecting livelihoods, reducing disaster risks, and building a more climate-resilient future for our communities.